By Tobi Cohen, Postmedia News
NDP Leader Jack Layton leaves a press conference with his wife, Toronto NDP MP Olivia Chow, after announcing that he has been diagnosed with a second form of cancer and that he is temporarily stepping down as leader of the federal NDP, Monday afternoon, July 25, 2011 in Toronto.
Photograph by: Aaron Lynett, National Post
OTTAWA — It's the question everybody is thinking but doesn't want to ask: What happens if Jack Layton isn't healthy enough to return to Parliament Hill in September? What happens if he isn't well enough to ever return ?
Though cagey on the subject of succession ever since his leader suffered a broken hip weeks before the writ dropped last spring, the party's senior Quebec member Thomas Mulcair is certainly known to harbour leadership ambitions.
Looking more frail than ever, Layton on Monday vowed to be back by the time Parliament resumes in the fall and recommended newly elected Hull-Aylmer MP and former Public Service Alliance of Canada president Nycole Turmel be named interim leader.
As caucus leader she already has the unanimous support of fellow MPs and her selection is considered good for party unity since Mulcair and Libby Davies of B.C. currently share the role of deputy leader and are said to represent different aspects of the NDP base.
Both Mulcair and Davies said Tuesday that they support Layton's recommendation but were reluctant to look ahead any farther.
"Under the circumstances, I think it was by far the best choice so we could concentrate on our jobs," Mulcair told Radio-Canada, noting for him, that means being the Opposition House leader.
"What's on the table right now is an interim (position) . . . We'll stay with that for now. All the rest is pure speculation and we won't go there."
Mulcair said it's important that New Democrats now, more than ever, work as a team, so their leader can focus 100 per cent of his energy on his recovery.
For her part, Davies said she "wholeheartedly supports" Layton's recommendation that Turmel be named interim leader. She's not surprised that people are already speculating over the long-term leadership of the party, but is for now "focused on the very immediate situation before us."
She's also confident that Layton has instilled the sort of work ethic within his team that will allow the party to weather this storm.
"I think we'll miss him but I don't think there will be a vacuum," she said, adding if anything, the NDP's resolve will be stronger. "It's like we're working to meet his expectations. What we know he wants done as official Opposition."
Still, many questions over long-term leadership and the future of a suddenly successful party that has put so many eggs in its charismatic leader's basket remain.
Does Mulcair, the sometimes arrogant "Den Mother" tasked with looking after the 58 newbies elected in an unprecedented orange sweep of la belle province have what it takes to keep growing the party and ensuring its historic second place finish isn't a one-time fluke?
Does Davies, a relic from the party's one-time socialist union base?
Does anybody?
Experts suggest these questions were bound to come up eventually, but Layton's shocking announcement he was stepping down temporarily as leader to fight a new form of cancer has sped up speculation over the party's future.
Ipsos Reid pollster John Wright said Layton is by far the most popular politician in Canada. Three-quarters of Canadians said Layton ought to stay in politics even if he had lost his seat in the recent election, compared to just 11 per cent who said the same for former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, he said.
On characteristics like honesty, commitment and likability, Layton was in the 55-60 per cent range, while fellow leaders hovered around 25 per cent.
Canadians, he suggested, especially those in Quebec, voted in large part for the man rather than the party, its policies or ideals and as such, he believes the party is now "vulnerable."
Wright describes Layton as the "bridge" that holds the party's traditional base of "isms," its newer urban supporters and its recently disenfranchised moderate ex-Bloquists together.
"People are genuinely hopeful for his recovery but it's not going to stop people from raising the question as to what happens to the party, not only a couple of months from now, but a year from now," he said, noting it's a discussion that will probably be happening quietly within party ranks.
"(The NDP) has a chance to regenerate and rejuvenate in a way that very few political parties ever have or what it can do, is it can fracture."
Another "unknown quantity," he said, is the Liberal party. Reduced to just 35 seats and currently under the leadership of former Ontario New Democratic premier Bob Rae, he would not be surprised if talks of a merger were to come up again as both parties go "soul searching."
As for Mulcair, Wright has no idea what Canadians think of him. As a pollster, he never thought to ask.
Political science professor Bruce Hicks of Montreal's Concordia University said Mulcair's "street fighter" political style is "totally different" from that of Layton who is personable and has a way of connecting with voters.
"The role Thomas Mulcair played since he came to Ottawa has been very much the harsh critic of the government. Sometimes a little too loud, too aggressive, taking a few too many risks with the facts and too much hyperbole which you don't really want in a leader but you do need it in a deputy leader when in opposition," he said.
"Can somebody with that personality change that personality? It happened in history. People have risen to the occasion"
He also enjoys a lot of support in Quebec and was responsible for recruiting many of the candidates who now sit as NDP MPs, he added.
Davies, he suggested, would also likely seek the leadership and would likely win the support of party stalwarts.
Unlike the Conservatives and Liberals, the NDP has traditionally selected leaders from within caucus, Hicks said, but given how much the party has changed, its certainly possible that provincial leaders and others might step up.
That said, he doesn't expect anybody will be putting "feelers" out any time soon.
"You have to be very careful in these situations," he suggested. "Especially when health issues are involved."
The NDP caucus will meet Wednesday morning and a final decision on the interim leader will be made by the party's federal council on Thursday. Officials say Layton may decide to address his supporters via video link. While possible, its not expected that any other names besides Turmel's will be put forward for interim leader.
There's no current contingency plan in place should Layton not be able to resume the leadership by Sept. 19, added party spokeswoman Kathleen Monk.
"I don't think anybody in the party . . . would deny him more time if he requires it."
tcohen@postmedia.com
Twitter.com/tobicohen
Though cagey on the subject of succession ever since his leader suffered a broken hip weeks before the writ dropped last spring, the party's senior Quebec member Thomas Mulcair is certainly known to harbour leadership ambitions.
Looking more frail than ever, Layton on Monday vowed to be back by the time Parliament resumes in the fall and recommended newly elected Hull-Aylmer MP and former Public Service Alliance of Canada president Nycole Turmel be named interim leader.
As caucus leader she already has the unanimous support of fellow MPs and her selection is considered good for party unity since Mulcair and Libby Davies of B.C. currently share the role of deputy leader and are said to represent different aspects of the NDP base.
Both Mulcair and Davies said Tuesday that they support Layton's recommendation but were reluctant to look ahead any farther.
"Under the circumstances, I think it was by far the best choice so we could concentrate on our jobs," Mulcair told Radio-Canada, noting for him, that means being the Opposition House leader.
"What's on the table right now is an interim (position) . . . We'll stay with that for now. All the rest is pure speculation and we won't go there."
Mulcair said it's important that New Democrats now, more than ever, work as a team, so their leader can focus 100 per cent of his energy on his recovery.
For her part, Davies said she "wholeheartedly supports" Layton's recommendation that Turmel be named interim leader. She's not surprised that people are already speculating over the long-term leadership of the party, but is for now "focused on the very immediate situation before us."
She's also confident that Layton has instilled the sort of work ethic within his team that will allow the party to weather this storm.
"I think we'll miss him but I don't think there will be a vacuum," she said, adding if anything, the NDP's resolve will be stronger. "It's like we're working to meet his expectations. What we know he wants done as official Opposition."
Still, many questions over long-term leadership and the future of a suddenly successful party that has put so many eggs in its charismatic leader's basket remain.
Does Mulcair, the sometimes arrogant "Den Mother" tasked with looking after the 58 newbies elected in an unprecedented orange sweep of la belle province have what it takes to keep growing the party and ensuring its historic second place finish isn't a one-time fluke?
Does Davies, a relic from the party's one-time socialist union base?
Does anybody?
Experts suggest these questions were bound to come up eventually, but Layton's shocking announcement he was stepping down temporarily as leader to fight a new form of cancer has sped up speculation over the party's future.
Ipsos Reid pollster John Wright said Layton is by far the most popular politician in Canada. Three-quarters of Canadians said Layton ought to stay in politics even if he had lost his seat in the recent election, compared to just 11 per cent who said the same for former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, he said.
On characteristics like honesty, commitment and likability, Layton was in the 55-60 per cent range, while fellow leaders hovered around 25 per cent.
Canadians, he suggested, especially those in Quebec, voted in large part for the man rather than the party, its policies or ideals and as such, he believes the party is now "vulnerable."
Wright describes Layton as the "bridge" that holds the party's traditional base of "isms," its newer urban supporters and its recently disenfranchised moderate ex-Bloquists together.
"People are genuinely hopeful for his recovery but it's not going to stop people from raising the question as to what happens to the party, not only a couple of months from now, but a year from now," he said, noting it's a discussion that will probably be happening quietly within party ranks.
"(The NDP) has a chance to regenerate and rejuvenate in a way that very few political parties ever have or what it can do, is it can fracture."
Another "unknown quantity," he said, is the Liberal party. Reduced to just 35 seats and currently under the leadership of former Ontario New Democratic premier Bob Rae, he would not be surprised if talks of a merger were to come up again as both parties go "soul searching."
As for Mulcair, Wright has no idea what Canadians think of him. As a pollster, he never thought to ask.
Political science professor Bruce Hicks of Montreal's Concordia University said Mulcair's "street fighter" political style is "totally different" from that of Layton who is personable and has a way of connecting with voters.
"The role Thomas Mulcair played since he came to Ottawa has been very much the harsh critic of the government. Sometimes a little too loud, too aggressive, taking a few too many risks with the facts and too much hyperbole which you don't really want in a leader but you do need it in a deputy leader when in opposition," he said.
"Can somebody with that personality change that personality? It happened in history. People have risen to the occasion"
He also enjoys a lot of support in Quebec and was responsible for recruiting many of the candidates who now sit as NDP MPs, he added.
Davies, he suggested, would also likely seek the leadership and would likely win the support of party stalwarts.
Unlike the Conservatives and Liberals, the NDP has traditionally selected leaders from within caucus, Hicks said, but given how much the party has changed, its certainly possible that provincial leaders and others might step up.
That said, he doesn't expect anybody will be putting "feelers" out any time soon.
"You have to be very careful in these situations," he suggested. "Especially when health issues are involved."
The NDP caucus will meet Wednesday morning and a final decision on the interim leader will be made by the party's federal council on Thursday. Officials say Layton may decide to address his supporters via video link. While possible, its not expected that any other names besides Turmel's will be put forward for interim leader.
There's no current contingency plan in place should Layton not be able to resume the leadership by Sept. 19, added party spokeswoman Kathleen Monk.
"I think that Mr. Layton intends to come back for the fall session and we're all hopeful and optimistic that that happens," she said.
"I don't think anybody in the party . . . would deny him more time if he requires it."
tcohen@postmedia.com
Twitter.com/tobicohen
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